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2006 Governor · PA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 755 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55.2% · Republican 42%

D+13.2

The certified result

Democrat 60.37% · Republican 39.63%

D+20.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.2 − 42 = 13.20
  2. Actual margin = 60.365 − 39.635 = 20.730
  3. Signed miss = 13.20 − (20.730) = -7.529
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.529| = 7.529

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55709, race ID 1353 (538 database).