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2006 Governor · OR

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 46%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.73% · Republican 42.75%

D+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 46 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.728 − 42.752 = 7.976
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (7.976) = 0.023
  4. Absolute miss = |0.023| = 0.023

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55657, race ID 1362 (538 database).