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2006 Governor · OR

DHM Research · fieldwork ended 2006-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 39%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.73% · Republican 42.75%

D+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 39 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.728 − 42.752 = 7.976
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (7.976) = -0.977
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.977| = 0.977

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55656, race ID 1362 (538 database).