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2006 Governor · OR

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 755 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.2% · Republican 46.6%

D+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 50.73% · Republican 42.75%

D+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.2 − 46.6 = 0.60
  2. Actual margin = 50.728 − 42.752 = 7.976
  3. Signed miss = 0.60 − (7.976) = -7.377
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.377| = 7.377

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55654, race ID 1362 (538 database).