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2006 Governor · OK

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 488 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 65% · Republican 29%

D+36.0

The certified result

Democrat 66.50% · Republican 33.50%

D+33.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 65 − 29 = 36.00
  2. Actual margin = 66.504 − 33.496 = 33.008
  3. Signed miss = 36.00 − (33.008) = 2.992
  4. Absolute miss = |2.992| = 2.992

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55643, race ID 1352 (538 database).