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2006 Governor · OK

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 472 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 64% · Republican 32%

D+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 66.50% · Republican 33.50%

D+33.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 64 − 32 = 32.00
  2. Actual margin = 66.504 − 33.496 = 33.008
  3. Signed miss = 32.00 − (33.008) = -1.008
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.008| = 1.008

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55642, race ID 1352 (538 database).