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2006 Senate · OH

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 678 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.7% · Republican 47.3%

D+1.4

The certified result

Democrat 56.16% · Republican 43.81%

D+12.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.7 − 47.3 = 1.40
  2. Actual margin = 56.164 − 43.815 = 12.349
  3. Signed miss = 1.40 − (12.349) = -10.949
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.949| = 10.949

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55628, race ID 1602 (538 database).