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2006 Governor · NY

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 952 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 63.2% · Republican 27.3%

D+35.9

The certified result

Democrat 58.34% · Republican 23.54%

D+34.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 63.2 − 27.3 = 35.90
  2. Actual margin = 58.343 − 23.536 = 34.807
  3. Signed miss = 35.90 − (34.807) = 1.093
  4. Absolute miss = |1.093| = 1.093

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55595, race ID 1350 (538 database).