2006 Senate · MI
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,081 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49.3% · Republican 41.9%
D+7.4
The certified result
Democrat 56.91% · Republican 41.26%
D+15.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49.3 − 41.9 = 7.40
- Actual margin = 56.910 − 41.258 = 15.652
- Signed miss = 7.40 − (15.652) = -8.252
- Absolute miss = |-8.252| = 8.252
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55509, race ID 1591 (538 database).