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2006 Governor · MI

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,081 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.6% · Republican 42.7%

D+8.9

The certified result

Democrat 56.36% · Republican 42.30%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.6 − 42.7 = 8.90
  2. Actual margin = 56.363 − 42.304 = 14.059
  3. Signed miss = 8.90 − (14.059) = -5.159
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.159| = 5.159

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55509, race ID 1344 (538 database).