2006 Governor · ME
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 634 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 34%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.11% · Republican 30.21%
D+7.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 34 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 38.109 − 30.212 = 7.897
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (7.897) = 0.103
- Absolute miss = |0.103| = 0.103
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55458, race ID 1343 (538 database).