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2006 Senate · MD

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 644 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52.8% · Republican 43.5%

D+9.3

The certified result

Democrat 54.21% · Republican 44.20%

D+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.8 − 43.5 = 9.30
  2. Actual margin = 54.206 − 44.195 = 10.011
  3. Signed miss = 9.30 − (10.011) = -0.710
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.710| = 0.710

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55437, race ID 1589 (538 database).