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2006 Governor · MA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 678 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58.1% · Republican 32.7%

D+25.4

The certified result

Democrat 55.63% · Republican 35.33%

D+20.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58.1 − 32.7 = 25.40
  2. Actual margin = 55.635 − 35.334 = 20.301
  3. Signed miss = 25.40 − (20.301) = 5.099
  4. Absolute miss = |5.099| = 5.099

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55410, race ID 1341 (538 database).