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2006 Governor · KS

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 511 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 40%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.90% · Republican 40.44%

D+17.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 40 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.902 − 40.436 = 17.466
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (17.466) = -0.466
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.466| = 0.466

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55378, race ID 1340 (538 database).