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2006 Governor · KS

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 37%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.90% · Republican 40.44%

D+17.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 37 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.902 − 40.436 = 17.466
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (17.466) = 1.534
  4. Absolute miss = |1.534| = 1.534

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55377, race ID 1340 (538 database).