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2006 Governor · IL

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 434 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 37%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.80% · Republican 39.26%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 37 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.795 − 39.261 = 10.534
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (10.534) = -2.535
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.535| = 2.535

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55364, race ID 1339 (538 database).