2006 Governor · IL
Market Shares Corp. · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 29%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.80% · Republican 39.26%
D+10.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 29 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 49.795 − 39.261 = 10.534
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (10.534) = 4.465
- Absolute miss = |4.465| = 4.465
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55362, race ID 1339 (538 database).