2006 Governor · IL
Richard Day Research · fieldwork ended 2006-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 603 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 32%
D+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.80% · Republican 39.26%
D+10.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 32 = 16.00
- Actual margin = 49.795 − 39.261 = 10.534
- Signed miss = 16.00 − (10.534) = 5.465
- Absolute miss = |5.465| = 5.465
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55358, race ID 1339 (538 database).