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2006 Governor · IA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 301 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 46%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.02% · Republican 44.38%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 46 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.025 − 44.379 = 9.646
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (9.646) = -1.646
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.646| = 1.646

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55334, race ID 1337 (538 database).