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2006 Governor · IA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 507 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.6% · Republican 46.4%

D+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 54.02% · Republican 44.38%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.6 − 46.4 = 1.20
  2. Actual margin = 54.025 − 44.379 = 9.646
  3. Signed miss = 1.20 − (9.646) = -8.446
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.446| = 8.446

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55331, race ID 1337 (538 database).