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2006 Governor · IA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.02% · Republican 44.38%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.025 − 44.379 = 9.646
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (9.646) = -5.646
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.646| = 5.646

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55330, race ID 1337 (538 database).