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2006 Governor · GA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,014 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36.3% · Republican 48.3%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.22% · Republican 57.95%

R+19.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.3 − 48.3 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.218 − 57.946 = -19.728
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-19.728) = 7.728
  4. Absolute miss = |7.728| = 7.728

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55312, race ID 1335 (538 database).