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2006 Governor · FL

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 50%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.11% · Republican 52.18%

R+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 50 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.106 − 52.179 = -7.073
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-7.073) = -0.927
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.927| = 0.927

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55291, race ID 1334 (538 database).