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2006 Governor · FL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 1,005 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 54%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.11% · Republican 52.18%

R+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 54 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.106 − 52.179 = -7.073
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-7.073) = -4.927
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.927| = 4.927

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55287, race ID 1334 (538 database).