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2006 Senate · FL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 952 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53.7% · Republican 39.6%

D+14.1

The certified result

Democrat 60.30% · Republican 38.10%

D+22.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.7 − 39.6 = 14.10
  2. Actual margin = 60.301 − 38.096 = 22.205
  3. Signed miss = 14.10 − (22.205) = -8.105
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.105| = 8.105

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55283, race ID 1585 (538 database).