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2006 Governor · CO

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 40%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.98% · Republican 40.16%

D+16.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 40 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.985 − 40.165 = 16.820
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (16.820) = 3.180
  4. Absolute miss = |3.180| = 3.180

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55227, race ID 1332 (538 database).