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2006 Governor · CO

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 38%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.98% · Republican 40.16%

D+16.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 38 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.985 − 40.165 = 16.820
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (16.820) = -4.820
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.820| = 4.820

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55223, race ID 1332 (538 database).