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2006 Governor · CO

Ciruli Associates · fieldwork ended 2006-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 33%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.98% · Republican 40.16%

D+16.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 33 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.985 − 40.165 = 16.820
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (16.820) = 2.180
  4. Absolute miss = |2.180| = 2.180

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55222, race ID 1332 (538 database).