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2006 Senate · CA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 1,015 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 29%

D+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.43% · Republican 35.02%

D+24.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 29 = 32.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.431 − 35.015 = 24.416
  3. Signed miss = 32.00 − (24.416) = 7.584
  4. Absolute miss = |7.584| = 7.584

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55203, race ID 1582 (538 database).