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2006 Governor · CA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,155 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38.8% · Republican 47.6%

R+8.8

The certified result

Democrat 38.91% · Republican 55.88%

R+17.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.8 − 47.6 = -8.80
  2. Actual margin = 38.905 − 55.881 = -16.976
  3. Signed miss = -8.80 − (-16.976) = 8.176
  4. Absolute miss = |8.176| = 8.176

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55200, race ID 1331 (538 database).