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2006 Governor · CA

Public Policy Institute of California · fieldwork ended 2006-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 1,076 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 48%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.91% · Republican 55.88%

R+17.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 48 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.905 − 55.881 = -16.976
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-16.976) = -1.024
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.024| = 1.024

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55197, race ID 1331 (538 database).