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2006 Senate · AZ

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 644 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.4% · Republican 51.8%

R+7.4

The certified result

Democrat 43.50% · Republican 53.34%

R+9.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.4 − 51.8 = -7.40
  2. Actual margin = 43.499 − 53.341 = -9.842
  3. Signed miss = -7.40 − (-9.842) = 2.441
  4. Absolute miss = |2.441| = 2.441

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55159, race ID 1581 (538 database).