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2006 Governor · AR

Opinion Research Associates · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 38%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.61% · Republican 40.67%

D+14.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 38 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.606 − 40.667 = 14.939
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (14.939) = 3.062
  4. Absolute miss = |3.062| = 3.062

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55138, race ID 1329 (538 database).