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2006 Governor · AR

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 572 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 38%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.61% · Republican 40.67%

D+14.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 38 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.606 − 40.667 = 14.939
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (14.939) = 5.062
  4. Absolute miss = |5.062| = 5.062

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55137, race ID 1329 (538 database).