Skip to content

2006 Governor · AR

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 41%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.61% · Republican 40.67%

D+14.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 41 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.606 − 40.667 = 14.939
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (14.939) = -6.938
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.938| = 6.938

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55136, race ID 1329 (538 database).