Skip to content

2006 Governor · AK

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.97% · Republican 48.33%

R+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.973 − 48.330 = -7.357
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-7.357) = 2.357
  4. Absolute miss = |2.357| = 2.357

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55100, race ID 1327 (538 database).