2004 House · UT-3
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2004-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 25% · Republican 55%
R+30.0
The certified result
Democrat 32.52% · Republican 63.39%
R+30.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 25 − 55 = -30.00
- Actual margin = 32.517 − 63.390 = -30.873
- Signed miss = -30.00 − (-30.873) = 0.873
- Absolute miss = |0.873| = 0.873
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55068, race ID 3556 (538 database).