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2004 House · UT-2

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2004-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 430 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 41%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.76% · Republican 43.21%

D+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 41 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.757 − 43.214 = 11.543
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (11.543) = -1.543
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.543| = 1.543

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55068, race ID 3555 (538 database).