2004 House · UT-1
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2004-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 21% · Republican 64%
R+43.0
The certified result
Democrat 29.13% · Republican 67.91%
R+38.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 21 − 64 = -43.00
- Actual margin = 29.130 − 67.905 = -38.775
- Signed miss = -43.00 − (-38.775) = -4.224
- Absolute miss = |-4.224| = 4.224
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55068, race ID 3554 (538 database).