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2004 Senate · UT

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2004-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 1,228 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 22% · Republican 65%

R+43.0

The certified result

Democrat 28.40% · Republican 68.73%

R+40.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 22 − 65 = -43.00
  2. Actual margin = 28.403 − 68.731 = -40.328
  3. Signed miss = -43.00 − (-40.328) = -2.672
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.672| = 2.672

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55068, race ID 1644 (538 database).