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2002 Governor · WI

St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute · fieldwork ended 2002-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 382 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 33%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.09% · Republican 41.39%

D+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 33 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.091 − 41.388 = 3.703
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (3.703) = 4.297
  4. Absolute miss = |4.297| = 4.297

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54994, race ID 1415 (538 database).