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2002 Governor · TX

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 683 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 53%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.96% · Republican 57.81%

R+17.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 53 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.961 − 57.808 = -17.847
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-17.847) = 7.848
  4. Absolute miss = |7.848| = 7.848

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54973, race ID 1413 (538 database).