2002 Governor · TX
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 683 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 53%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.96% · Republican 57.81%
R+17.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 53 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 39.961 − 57.808 = -17.847
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-17.847) = 6.848
- Absolute miss = |6.848| = 6.848
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54970, race ID 1413 (538 database).