2002 Governor · TX
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 683 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 52%
R+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.96% · Republican 57.81%
R+17.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 52 = -9.00
- Actual margin = 39.961 − 57.808 = -17.847
- Signed miss = -9.00 − (-17.847) = 8.848
- Absolute miss = |8.848| = 8.848
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54967, race ID 1413 (538 database).