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2002 Governor · TN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 726 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 42%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.65% · Republican 47.59%

D+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.647 − 47.594 = 3.053
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (3.053) = 2.946
  4. Absolute miss = |2.946| = 2.946

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54948, race ID 1412 (538 database).