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2002 Senate · OK

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 710 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 53%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.31% · Republican 57.30%

R+21.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 53 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.310 − 57.302 = -20.992
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-20.992) = 3.992
  4. Absolute miss = |3.992| = 3.992

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54882, race ID 1673 (538 database).