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2002 Governor · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 666 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39.3% · Republican 58%

R+18.7

The certified result

Democrat 38.31% · Republican 57.76%

R+19.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.3 − 58 = -18.70
  2. Actual margin = 38.307 − 57.758 = -19.451
  3. Signed miss = -18.70 − (-19.451) = 0.751
  4. Absolute miss = |0.751| = 0.751

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54874, race ID 1405 (538 database).