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2002 Governor · OH

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 602 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 49%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.31% · Republican 57.76%

R+19.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 49 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.307 − 57.758 = -19.451
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-19.451) = 5.451
  4. Absolute miss = |5.451| = 5.451

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54871, race ID 1405 (538 database).