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2002 Governor · NY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 567 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 47%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 30.77% · Republican 44.46%

R+13.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 47 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 30.773 − 44.456 = -13.683
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-13.683) = -1.317
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.317| = 1.317

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54857, race ID 1404 (538 database).