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2002 Governor · NY

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2002-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 432 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 48%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 30.77% · Republican 44.46%

R+13.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 48 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 30.773 − 44.456 = -13.683
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-13.683) = -7.317
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.317| = 7.317

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54856, race ID 1404 (538 database).